Ф.Ф Штибляр Balkans – growth, stability, the impact of financial crisis and integration to the world

Аннотация: Balkan peninsula is treated as a special case: as powder keg of Europe and the term “balkanization” has negative connotation. Events of last twenty years did not disappoint such terminology, both within Balkan and outside. There was collapse of socialist economies, disintegration of socialist Yugoslavia with not optimal political solutions. External conditions such as an ailing EU, political turmoil in Near East had negative influences on Balkans. The aim of this article is to investigate what has happened with Balkan economies in the last twenty years. In particular, the author focuses on the consideration of the long term trends in economic growth and its stability (is catching-up to developed Europe taking place?); on the impact of global financial crisis on Balkans (was Balkans with less developed financial structure insulated from negative consequences of global financial crisis?); and on the success in integration of Balkan economies to the globalizing world (is Balkans still “an isolated island” in the world of progress?). Basic criteria for a selection of analyzed countries is geographical position of country in Balkans. Thus, 11 Balkan countries are analyzed (Cyprus is not included). The quality of macroeconomic performance and long term development strategy used is measured by dynamic of GDP growth, the stability of growth in period 1991-2010 and resistance to the effects of global financial crisis. The first part includes two indicators of welfare: growth and stability, the second includes the effects of creation of bubble in period 2005-2008 and its bursting in after that.

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Abstract: Balkan peninsula is treated as a special case: as powder keg of Europe and the term “balkanization” has negative connotation. Events of last twenty years did not disappoint such terminology, both within Balkan and outside. There was collapse of socialist economies, disintegration of socialist Yugoslavia with not optimal political solutions. External conditions such as an ailing EU, political turmoil in Near East had negative influences on Balkans. The aim of this article is to investigate what has happened with Balkan economies in the last twenty years. In particular, the author focuses on the consideration of the long term trends in economic growth and its stability (is catching-up to developed Europe taking place?); on the impact of global financial crisis on Balkans (was Balkans with less developed financial structure insulated from negative consequences of global financial crisis?); and on the success in integration of Balkan economies to the globalizing world (is Balkans still “an isolated island” in the world of progress?). Basic criteria for a selection of analyzed countries is geographical position of country in Balkans. Thus, 11 Balkan countries are analyzed (Cyprus is not included). The quality of macroeconomic performance and long term development strategy used is measured by dynamic of GDP growth, the stability of growth in period 1991-2010 and resistance to the effects of global financial crisis. The first part includes two indicators of welfare: growth and stability, the second includes the effects of creation of bubble in period 2005-2008 and its bursting in after that.

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