Библиотека
|
ваш профиль |
Политика и Общество
Правильная ссылка на статью:
Зобнин А.В.
Теория домино в зарубежной политической мысли
// Политика и Общество.
2016. № 10.
С. 1323-1334.
URL: https://nbpublish.com/library_read_article.php?id=54626
Зобнин А.В. Теория домино в зарубежной политической мыслиАннотация: Статья посвящена изучению мнений и подходов мирового политико-академического сообщества относительно истоков, сущности и эффективности теории домино во внешнеполитическом курсе США XX-XXI вв. Представлены теоретико-игровые и рациональные основания теории домино, прецеденты использования теории в истории международных отношений последних пятидесяти лет, а также возражения и критические замечания представителей мирового академического сообщества в отношении применения теории домино в анализе и оценке современных мировых политических процессов. В исследовании предпринята попытка критического анализа положений теории домино с позиции теории игр, рационализма и постпозитивизма. В ходе проведения исследования сделан вывод о простоте и высокой эффективности теории домино, сделавших стратегию популярной в среде американской внешнеполитической элиты. Большую популярность теория домино приобретала в связи с тем, что её эффективность могла определяться только самой гипотетической возможностью вмешательства США в развитие событий. В отличие от принципа баланса сил, стремящегося учитывать стратегии поведения множества акторов и текущее состояние международной среды, теория домино предлагала всего лишь два возможных варианта поведения США в решении внутриполитических конфликтов иностранных государств. В то же время теория домино за годы использования получила серьезный идеологический пласт, который сделал её крайне противоречивой. Указанная противоречивость привела к наличию в мировом политико-академическом сообществе нескольких групп, предлагающих своё видение сущности и значения теории в мировой истории и политике. Наиболее крупными группами можно считать «универсалистов», считающих теорию домино универсальной теорией, близкой по сути к принципу баланса сил, а также «историцистов», определяющих за теорией место локальной внешнеполитической стратегии США эпохи холодной войны. Ключевые слова: теория домино, эффект домино, баланс сил, теория игр, американская интервенция, стратегия сдерживания, теория международных отношений, США, Российская Федерация, политико-академическое сообществоAbstract: This article is deticated the study of opinions and approaches of global political-academic community concerning the origins, nature and effectiveness of the domino theory in the US foreign policy of the XX-XXI centuries. The author present the theoretical-game and rational grounds of the domino theory, precedents of its use within the history of international relations over the last 50 years, as well as the objections and criticism notes of the representatives of the global academic community regarding the application of the domino theory. The conclusion is made about the simplicity and high effectiveness of the domino theory that made such strategy popular among the American foreign policy elite. Domino theory acquired high popularity due to the fact that its effectiveness could be determined only by the hypothetical possibility of the interference of the United States into the course of events. Unlike the principle of the balance of powers, which strives to consider the behavioral strategies of multiple actors and the current status of the international environments, the domino theory suggested just to possible options of the US behavior in resolving the domestic policy conflicts of the foreign nations. At the same time, the domino theory has suffered a serious ideological formation, which made it extremely controversial. This inconsistency led to the presence in the global political-academic community of several groups offering their vision of the essence and meaning of the theory in world history and politics. The largest groups can be considered the "universalists", who believe the domino theory is a universal theory that is similar to the principle of the balance of powers; and the "historicists", who define the theory as the place for the local foreign policy strategy of the United States during the Cold War period. Keywords: theory of international relations, strategy of deterrence, American intervention, game theory, balance of power, domino effect, domino theory, United States, Russian Federation, political-academic community
Эта статья может быть бесплатно загружена в формате PDF для чтения. Обращаем ваше внимание на необходимость соблюдения авторских прав,
указания библиографической ссылки на статью при цитировании.
Скачать статью Библиография
1. Зобнин А.В. К определению принципа баланса сил: опыт неоинституционального подхода к международной среде // Международные процессы. 2014. №3. С. 55-69.
2. Зобнин А.В. Рациональный выбор – это миф?! Парадокс ограниченного выбора в системе парадоксов: конспект лекции. Иваново: Издательство ИГИКМ им. Д.Г. Бурылина, 2014. 44 с. 3. Иванов Н.С. Государственный переворот 1954 г. в Гватемале (к 60-летию операции ЦРУ «Успех») // Латиноамериканский исторический альманах. 2014. Вып. 14. С. 174-190. 4. Хуви Й. Теория домино: Если падает первая фишка, остальные последуют за ней // Теория и методы в современной политической науке: Первая попытка теоретического синтеза / Под ред. С.У. Ларсена. М.: РОССПЭН, 2009. С. 213-229. 5. Achen C., Snidal D. Rational Deterrence Theory and Comparative Case Studies // World Politics. January 1989. P. 143-169. 6. Arandia S.R. Burden of the Cold War: The George H.W. Bush Administration and El Salvador. A Thesis Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas A&M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts. Texas, 2010. 135 p. 7. Bator F. No Good choices LBJ and the Vietnam/Great Society Connection. Cambridge, MA, 2007. 44 p. 8. Beinart P. The Domino Theory // The New Republic. February 26, 1996. P. 6. 9. Betts R.K. From Cold War to Hot Peace: The Habit of American Force // Political Science Quarterly. 2012. №3. P. 353-368. 10. Butterly L. Rhetoric and Reality-A History of the Formation of the 'Domino Theory' // History Studies. Vol. 13. 2012. P. 25-46. 11. Forsberg E. Do Ethnic Dominoes Fall? Evaluating Domino Effects of Granting Territorial Concessions to Separatist Groups // International Studies Quarterly. Vol. 57. 2013. P. 229-240. 12. Glad B. The Many Metaphors of War: A Critique of Rank’s Essay // Political Psychology. Vol. 31. № 1. 2010. P. 27-31. 13. Haag E. van den. The Busyness of American Foreign Policy // Foreign Affairs. September 1985. P. 114-129. 14. Jervis R. Domino Beliefs and Strategic Behavior // Dominoes and Bandwagons. Strategic Beliefs and Great Power Competition in the Eurasian Rimland / Ed. by R. Jervis, J. Snyder. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1991. P. 30-42. 15. Kennan G. The Sources of Soviet Conduct (The “X” Article). URL: http://www.cnn.com/ specials/cold.war/episodes/04/documents/x.html (дата обращения: 05.12.2015). 16. Ladha R. A Regional Arms Race. Testing the Nuclear Domino Theory in the Middle East // Online Journal of Southwest Asia and Islamic Civilization. Spring 2012. P. 1-9. 17. Leeson P.T., Dean A.M. The Democratic Domino Theory: An Empirical Investigation // American Journal of Political Science. Vol. 53. No. 3. July 2009. P. 533–551. 18. Leeson P.T., Sobel R.S., Dean A.M. Contagious Capitalism // Working Paper of the Mercatus Center at George Mason University. March 2010. 44 p. 19. Litwak R.S. Containment // The Oxford Companion to the Politics of the World / Ed. by J. Krieger. Oxford, 1993. P. 191-199. 20. Meyer M., Brown F. Domino Theory // Newsweek (Atlantic Edition). October 2005. P. 7-8. 21. Miyagi T. Post-War Asia and Japan — Moving beyond the Cold War: An Historical Perspective // Asia-Pacific Review. Vol. 18. № 1. 2011. P. 25-44. 22. Ninkovich F. Modernity and Power: A History of the Domino Theory in the Twentieth Century. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1994. 418 p. 23. Olson J.S., Roberts R. Where the Domino Fell (Revised 5th ed.). Malden, MA: Blackwell Publishing, 2008. 336 p. 24. Quine W.V.O. From a Logical Point of View. Second Edition. N.Y.: Harper and Raw Publishers, 1963. 190 p. 25. Rosato S., Schuessler J. A Realist Foreign Policy of the United States // Perspectives on Politics. December 2011. P. 803-819. 26. Schaffer M.B. The Iraq Experiment and Domino Theory Revisited // JFQ: Joint Force Quarterly. April 2010. P. 56-62. 27. Schwarz B. Permanent Interests, Endless Threats Cold War Continuities and NATO Enlargement // World Policy Journal. Fall 1997. 24-30. 28. Schwartz B. The Paradox of Choice: Why More Is Less. N.Y.: Harper Collins, 2004. 288 p. 29. Selten R. The Chain-store Paradox // Theory and Decision. 1978. Vol. 9. P. 127-159. 30. Slater J. Dominos in Central America: Will they fall? Does it matter? // International Security.1987. Vol. 12. № 2. P. 105–134. 31. Slater J. The Domino Theory in International Politics: The Case of Vietnam // Security Studies. 1993/1994. Vol. 3. P. 186-196. 32. Stratton S.A. The Ties That Bind: The Domino Theory in American Foreign Policy, 1947-1968. A Thesis Submitted to the School of Graduate Studies in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Master of Arts. Ontario, McMaster University, 1989. 152 p. 33. Tran J. The Vietnam War as Theo-Drama: Balthasar, Kenosis, and the Cold War’s Temporal Desperation // Political Theology. July 2007. P. 319-340. 34. Vesely M. Debunking The Domino Theory // Middle East. May 2003. P. 2-7. 35. Walt St. M. Where Do Bad Ideas Come from and Why Don’t They Go Away? // Foreign Policy. January/February 2011. P. 50-58. 36. Warner G. Review article Lyndon Johnson’s war? Part I: Escalation // International Affairs. July 2003. P. 829-853. 37. Whitaker C. The Domino Theory in the Popular Geopolitics of the U.S. News Media. A Dissertation Submitted to the Department of Geography in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy. The Florida State University, 2011. 279 p. References
1. Zobnin A.V. K opredeleniyu printsipa balansa sil: opyt neoinstitutsional'nogo podkhoda k mezhdunarodnoy srede // Mezhdunarodnye protsessy. 2014. №3. S. 55-69.
2. Zobnin A.V. Ratsional'nyy vybor – eto mif?! Paradoks ogranichennogo vybora v sisteme paradoksov: konspekt lektsii. Ivanovo: Izdatel'stvo IGIKM im. D.G. Burylina, 2014. 44 s. 3. Ivanov N.S. Gosudarstvennyy perevorot 1954 g. v Gvatemale (k 60-letiyu operatsii TsRU «Uspekh») // Latinoamerikanskiy istoricheskiy al'manakh. 2014. Vyp. 14. S. 174-190. 4. Khuvi Y. Teoriya domino: Esli padaet pervaya fishka, ostal'nye posleduyut za ney // Teoriya i metody v sovremennoy politicheskoy nauke: Pervaya popytka teoreticheskogo sinteza / Pod red. S.U. Larsena. M.: ROSSPEN, 2009. S. 213-229. 5. Achen C., Snidal D. Rational Deterrence Theory and Comparative Case Studies // World Politics. January 1989. P. 143-169. 6. Arandia S.R. Burden of the Cold War: The George H.W. Bush Administration and El Salvador. A Thesis Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas A&M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts. Texas, 2010. 135 p. 7. Bator F. No Good choices LBJ and the Vietnam/Great Society Connection. Cambridge, MA, 2007. 44 p. 8. Beinart P. The Domino Theory // The New Republic. February 26, 1996. P. 6. 9. Betts R.K. From Cold War to Hot Peace: The Habit of American Force // Political Science Quarterly. 2012. №3. P. 353-368. 10. Butterly L. Rhetoric and Reality-A History of the Formation of the 'Domino Theory' // History Studies. Vol. 13. 2012. P. 25-46. 11. Forsberg E. Do Ethnic Dominoes Fall? Evaluating Domino Effects of Granting Territorial Concessions to Separatist Groups // International Studies Quarterly. Vol. 57. 2013. P. 229-240. 12. Glad B. The Many Metaphors of War: A Critique of Rank’s Essay // Political Psychology. Vol. 31. № 1. 2010. P. 27-31. 13. Haag E. van den. The Busyness of American Foreign Policy // Foreign Affairs. September 1985. P. 114-129. 14. Jervis R. Domino Beliefs and Strategic Behavior // Dominoes and Bandwagons. Strategic Beliefs and Great Power Competition in the Eurasian Rimland / Ed. by R. Jervis, J. Snyder. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1991. P. 30-42. 15. Kennan G. The Sources of Soviet Conduct (The “X” Article). URL: http://www.cnn.com/ specials/cold.war/episodes/04/documents/x.html (data obrashcheniya: 05.12.2015). 16. Ladha R. A Regional Arms Race. Testing the Nuclear Domino Theory in the Middle East // Online Journal of Southwest Asia and Islamic Civilization. Spring 2012. P. 1-9. 17. Leeson P.T., Dean A.M. The Democratic Domino Theory: An Empirical Investigation // American Journal of Political Science. Vol. 53. No. 3. July 2009. P. 533–551. 18. Leeson P.T., Sobel R.S., Dean A.M. Contagious Capitalism // Working Paper of the Mercatus Center at George Mason University. March 2010. 44 p. 19. Litwak R.S. Containment // The Oxford Companion to the Politics of the World / Ed. by J. Krieger. Oxford, 1993. P. 191-199. 20. Meyer M., Brown F. Domino Theory // Newsweek (Atlantic Edition). October 2005. P. 7-8. 21. Miyagi T. Post-War Asia and Japan — Moving beyond the Cold War: An Historical Perspective // Asia-Pacific Review. Vol. 18. № 1. 2011. P. 25-44. 22. Ninkovich F. Modernity and Power: A History of the Domino Theory in the Twentieth Century. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1994. 418 p. 23. Olson J.S., Roberts R. Where the Domino Fell (Revised 5th ed.). Malden, MA: Blackwell Publishing, 2008. 336 p. 24. Quine W.V.O. From a Logical Point of View. Second Edition. N.Y.: Harper and Raw Publishers, 1963. 190 p. 25. Rosato S., Schuessler J. A Realist Foreign Policy of the United States // Perspectives on Politics. December 2011. P. 803-819. 26. Schaffer M.B. The Iraq Experiment and Domino Theory Revisited // JFQ: Joint Force Quarterly. April 2010. P. 56-62. 27. Schwarz B. Permanent Interests, Endless Threats Cold War Continuities and NATO Enlargement // World Policy Journal. Fall 1997. 24-30. 28. Schwartz B. The Paradox of Choice: Why More Is Less. N.Y.: Harper Collins, 2004. 288 p. 29. Selten R. The Chain-store Paradox // Theory and Decision. 1978. Vol. 9. P. 127-159. 30. Slater J. Dominos in Central America: Will they fall? Does it matter? // International Security.1987. Vol. 12. № 2. P. 105–134. 31. Slater J. The Domino Theory in International Politics: The Case of Vietnam // Security Studies. 1993/1994. Vol. 3. P. 186-196. 32. Stratton S.A. The Ties That Bind: The Domino Theory in American Foreign Policy, 1947-1968. A Thesis Submitted to the School of Graduate Studies in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Master of Arts. Ontario, McMaster University, 1989. 152 p. 33. Tran J. The Vietnam War as Theo-Drama: Balthasar, Kenosis, and the Cold War’s Temporal Desperation // Political Theology. July 2007. P. 319-340. 34. Vesely M. Debunking The Domino Theory // Middle East. May 2003. P. 2-7. 35. Walt St. M. Where Do Bad Ideas Come from and Why Don’t They Go Away? // Foreign Policy. January/February 2011. P. 50-58. 36. Warner G. Review article Lyndon Johnson’s war? Part I: Escalation // International Affairs. July 2003. P. 829-853. 37. Whitaker C. The Domino Theory in the Popular Geopolitics of the U.S. News Media. A Dissertation Submitted to the Department of Geography in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy. The Florida State University, 2011. 279 p. |